Beat the Market

Market has a choppy 1st quarter in 2018. It has experienced a melt-up in January, following by correction in February and high volatility thereafter. I have made lots of changes in my portfolio: mainly increased REITs, Finance and Tech after the selloff. Long-term Still Holding: AXP, C, CELG, COP, CPTA, COST, DIS, FB, GILD, GPS, HD, IBM, M, SBUX Exited: BIDU (took profit, was afraid of high volatility) WDC (took profit after recent rally) BIVV (the company was taken over) OHI (took profit, reinvest in Tech) CVS (took profit, reinvest in CI) MOMO (took profit, reinvest in YY) Added weight of existing stocks: C (I believe recent selloff is overdone for finance, as big banks will benefit from rising interest rate) FB (Recent turmoil created great opportunity to add more shares) Added new positions: NTES (it is still high growth company) YY (the selloff after ER is overdone, it is growing rapidly, spinoff is on the table) CI (has more upside pot

Market finally turns green today , led by Energy and Tech rally. Market will be closed tomorrow ( Good Friday ). For March , Market has experienced a choppy month, Dow Jones -3.7%, S&P 500 -2.7% and Nasdaq -2.9%. Despite the stock market rally, Treasuries still attract buyers today so that yields drop further: 30-year +0.49%. 10-yr +0.16%. 5-yr +0.08%. Crude +0.84% to $64.92. Gold +0.09% to $1,325.40. UUP -0.08%. Grains Jump as US Farmers Poised to Plant Less Soy, Corn. SOYB +2.4%, CORN +3.7%. News Today Russia will expel at least 150 Western diplomats, including 60 from the U.S., and close the American consulate in St. Petersburg. The move comes following the alleged nerve attack on U.K. soil of a former Russian double agent and his daughter. The U.K. blamed Russia for the attack, and more than 20 EU and NATO member countries expelled more than 100 Russian diplomats in response. Nvidia ( NVDA +5% ) CEO Jensen Huang says Uber doesn’t use his company’s DRIVE self-dr

Bulls and Bears are fighting for direction. Dow Jones Index swings between gain and loss throughout the day. Tech ( QQQ -1.1% ) gets another hit. Dividend stocks and Biotech shines ( IBB +0.8% ). Treasury flat: 30-year +0.08%. 10-yr -0.07%. 5-yr -0.07%. Crude -0.89% to $64.67. Gold -1.30% to $1,324.50. UUP +0.8%. AMZN (-4.4%) is attacked by Trump, Trump has talked about changing the tech giant’s tax treatment and wonders if there’s “any way to go after Amazon with antitrust or competition law.” No clear path of new policy is hinted yet --- it could be just noise. Uber’s (UBER) self-driving unit co-founder Lior Ron is leaving the company, Winners REITs finally have a good day, IYR +1.9% . EQR +3.7%, SPG +3.6%, REG +3.45, MAA +3.1%, O +2.9%, OHI +2.9%... Other high dividend stocks : PM +3.2%, MO +2.8%, T +1.9%, VZ +1.5%, CMCSA +0.9%. Retailers stay strong as economy is still in good shape , M +4.3%, KSS +2.8%, WMT +2%, TGT +1% ... Such trend suggests investors are tu

Market has wild swing again, from early gain to big loss. Nasdaq -2.9% lost almost all the gain yesterday. The selloff is triggered by by a violent downturn in tech stocks. Treasury: 3 0-year +0.89%. 10-yr +0.51%. 5-yr +0.31%. TLT +1.06%. Crude -1.17% to $64.78. Gold -0.86% to $1,343.80. UUP +0.47%. Morning data was good:  Redbook Chain Store Sales: +3.6% Y/Y vs. +3.2% last week. Month-to-date sales +3.2% Y/Y. March sales are expected to be up 3.8% Y/Y and 0.6% M/M.   Home price index continues to rise in January. S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI: +0.8% M/M vs. +0.7% consensus, +0.7% prior (revised). Winners Utilities Sector XLU +1.4% attracts cash as Treasury yields drop. Similar case for REITs, IYR +0.3%. GE +4.3% amid speculation that Warren Buffett will buy a stake in the company. Losers All the big tech winners become losers today: NVDA -8.3% (temporarily suspending autonomous driving tests in an effort to learn more about last week's fatal Uber

Market suddenly turns to bullish as trade war threat eases during the weekend. US and China start to negotiate on trade issues. Dow +2.8%, S&P +2.7%, Nasdaq +3.3%. Treasury: 30-year -0.34%. 10-yr -0.22%. 5-yr -0.15%. Crude -0.61% to $65.48 . Gold +0.24% to $1,353.10 .  US Dollar UUP -0.47%. Winners Tech stocks ( QQQ +3.7% ) lead after being hit hard last week. MSFT +7.6% as Morgan Stanley raises its PT from $110 to $130 . NFLX +6.5%, ADBE +6.5%, INTC +6.3%, LRCX +6.1%, AMAT +5.6%, NVDA +4.9%, AAPL +4.7%, AMZN +4%, SQ +3.6%, GOOG +3.1% ... Financial Sector also performs strong. XLF +3.2%. LOW +6.6% , the company announced that Robert A. Niblock plans to retire as chairman, president and CEO after a 25-year career with the company. The board of directors has initiated a search for his successor. Losers FB +0.4% . It fell more than 6.5% in the morning before bouncing back. The FTC confirmation of a probe into Facebook's handling of user data should not be a

Market experiences another bloody week amid trade war threats from White House with China. Dow Jones -1.8%, S&P 500 -2.1%, Nasdaq -2.4%. Dow Jones is very close to Feb low during that correction. Crude +2.47% to $65.89. Gold +1.42% to $1,346.20 as safe-haven. Treasury yields almost flat. US dollar drops again, UUP -0.36%. For the week, Techs -7.6%, Financials -7.1%, Healthcare -6.7%, Industrials -5%; Energy fell only -0.8%. On News China has listed 128 American products for retaliation. The products had an import value of $3B last year, and include American steel, aluminum, pork, and wine. It is considered mild response. However, more actions may follow. Following chart shows the trades between US and China in 2016, by products. McMaster is fired. New National Security Adviser John Bolton is a war-monger. He wants wars with Iran and North Korea. He was involved Iraq War. He has worked for Russia before. All these make investors worry a lot! Trump signs the

Dow -2.9%, S&P500 -2.5%, Nasdaq -2.4%. Crude -1.44% to $64.23 . Gold +0.52% to $1,328.40. Treasury yields drop as money flows from stocks to bonds, TLT +1%. US Dollar flat, UUP +0.14%. As I said yesterday, "it could be ugly" on Thursday due to tariffs on Chinese goods. It is indeed, worst than I expected. We live in a "mad world" with probably the stupidest government in US history. First of all, let's review what it is. Picture from internet Tariffs on $50B-plus Chinese Imports The Trump administration is imposing tariffs on $50B of Chinese goods imports, the first shot in what could become a contentious global trade war. "This is the first of many," Trump says. "It could be about $60B," Trump says, but "that's really just a fraction of what we're talking about." A 30-day comment period from business could have an effect on the ultimate figure. He's asking China to immediately reduce the trade su

Market became very volatile after the rate hike , jumping to new session highs and then to session lows within 45 minutes. Only 3 of the 11 S&P sectors finished higher, with energy ( XLE +2.6% ) shinning again, after the U.S. reported crude inventories fell by 2.6M barrels last week. On the flip side, consumer staples (-1.3%) ended at the bottom of the sector standings, weighed by General Mills' 8.9% drop after lowering its FY 2018 profit guidance, and techs ( QQQ -0.43% ) underperformed even as Facebook bounced +0.7%. U.S. Treasury prices finished mixed, as the benchmark 10-year yield rose 3 bps to 2.91% while the Fed-sensitive two-year yield lost 3 bps to 2.31%. Crude +2.91% to $65.39. Gold +1.69% to $1,333.80. US Dollar UUP -0.8%. On the News Zuckerberg finally responded to recent events "We have a responsibility to protect your data, and if we can't then we don't deserve to serve you." "I've been working to understand exactly what ha

Market bounces back a bit ahead of rate hike tomorrow, led by Dow Jones, although social media stocks struggle for the 2nd day. Best in Dow 30: BA +1.8% . Worst: GE -3.1% . Crude +2.24% to $63.52. Gold -0.58% to $1,310.20. TLT -0.37%. UUP +0.57%. Focus on news Facebook ( FB -2.6% ) is on headlines everywhere amid the Cambridge Analytica fallout. Facebook's deputy chief privacy officer says "We appreciate the opportunity to answer questions the FTC may have." FTC (Federal Trade Commission) can fine the company $40k/day per violation if they conclude that Facebook has violated 2011 consent decree. The company has denied any violation. The company's officials are briefing House Energy & Commerce Committee and the Senate Commerce Committee today and tomorrow. Bottomline: FB have stopped sharing user info with 3rd party developer in 2015. All users have signed the agreement although nobody reads them. Therefore, I see little legal risks. Sure, all the so

Last Friday, I said "a correction in Tech Sector may come sooner or later." Now we know it comes very shortly. Tech Sector ( QQQ -2.3% ) is leading the decline today; followed by Biotech ( IBB -2% ), Energy ( XLE -1.5% ). Utilities ( XLU -0.6% ) and Financials ( XLF -0.7% ) are relatively better. GLD +0.2% ; USO flat; TLT -0.31%; UUP -0.42%. Uber will suspend its self-driving car testing program after a car hit and killed a woman in Arizona on Sunday evening. Facebook ( FB -6.8% ) is in the middle of a political storm again, which is dragging the whole Tech Sector down. GOOG -3.2%, AAPL -1.8%, AMZN -1.7%, NFLX -1.6%; MSFT -1.8%, TSLA -2.4%, SNAP -3.5%, TWTR -1.7%... Amazon’s Whole Foods will hold a supplier summit to solve the tensions (suppliers are not happy with Amazon after its takeover), starting tomorrow in Austin, Texas. Fed will hold meetings tomorrow and Wednesday Winners SIG (+2%) bounces back after the selloff after ER. Defense stocks are doing w

As threat of trade war lingers, market is lack of fuel to march north. I think a correction in Tech Sector may come sooner or later.  Dow Jones outperform Nasdaq again today. Among the 30 companies, best are WMT +1.9%, AXP +1.3% and CAT +1.2% ; worst are NKE, CSCO, UTX and UNH, all -0.7% . Among FAANG, FB is the only one finished green. For the week, Dow -1.5%, the S&P -1.2% and the Nasdaq -1%. Crude +1.75% to $62.26 . Gold -0.32% to $1,313.60. Treasury yields rise a little bit, TLT -0.35% . US Dollar gains slightly, UUP +0.25%. Winners ULTA +7.6% after a sharp drop after ER yesterday, helped by the bullish view from analysts: Jefferies adds Ulta to its Francise Pick List; Telsey has PT of $260; Stifel has PT of $225. WDC +4.1% , MU +3% , both get boosted from upgrades. X +4% , it is always volatile. Airlines are up today. Wolfe Research calls Southwest Airlines ( LUV +1.6% ) and Delta Air Lines ( DAL +0.6% ) the consensus picks as an airline target for W

Market is mixed. Well, it is Nasdaq's turn to go down today as Dow Jones holds up.  Crude +0.38% to $61.19 . Gold -0.69% to $1,316.50 . Treasury yields flat. US dollar UUP +0.49% . News U.S. gas cargo turns toward U.K. as Russian relations deteriorate. UK Prime Minister May raised questions about rising imports of Russian LNG amid the worst relations between the U.K. and Russia since the Cold War following Russia's alleged nerve agent attack against a former spy on U.K. soil. International mining companies including Glencore, Randgold (GOLD) and Ivanhoe Mines quit the Democratic Republic of Congo’s chamber of commerce , saying the industry body no longer represents their interests after the introduction of the country's new mining law in January, which raises royalties on minerals and removes a clause that protected miners from changes to the fiscal and customs regime for 10 years. At least five mines, which produce more than 85% of Congo’s copper, cobalt and g

It is Dow Jones's turn to go down today, while Nasdaq performs relatively better. Crude +0.28% to $60.88. Gold -0.13% to $1,325.40. US Dollar UUP flat. Treasury: 30-year +0.52%. 10-yr +0.16%. 5-yr +0.05%. TLT +0.86%. The worst in Dow 30 are BA -2.5% in the wake of possible trade war with China, and DWDP -2.2% . AAPL (-0.9%) should also be worried since Chinese market is extremely important to them. News Trump wishes to slap $60B tariffs on Chinese goods. China will definitely fight back if it is singled out for tariffs. US producer prices index (PPI) +0.2% vs 0.1% expected in Feb; core PPI +0.4%. Retail sales declined for a 3rd month as households curbs purchases of cars and other expensive items. Therefore, treasury yields fall today. Broadcom officially withdrew a $117 billion takeover bid for its rival chip maker QCOM. BTC keeps falling after Google's announcement banning advertisements from initial coin offerings. Winners Utilities Sector ( XLU +1%

Market opened high, trended low.  Healthcare (IYH +0.1%) and Utilities (XLU +0.2%) become the safe-harbor. In Dow 30, best are UNH +1.9% and JNJ +1.3% ; worst is GE -4.4% . GE gets hurt by JPM again, with new PT $11. JPM was the first cutting PT to $16, then $14, not long ago. Wait for the shareholders meeting in April to have better idea. Crude -1.21% to $60.62. Gold +0.42% to $1,326.40. UUP -0.2% , TLT +0.53% as treasury yields drop a little. News State Secretary Tillerson was fired , along with another aide McEntee (security clearance issue). New Secretary will be Pompeo. What does it mean for stock market? Since Pompeo is a loyal dog to Trump, harsh and uncertain foreign policies are expected, which will cause more volatility. Trump kills QCOM/Broadcom deal. QCOM (-5%) is hit hard. Broadcom may pursue other chipmakers. Volkswagen AG ( VLKAY -2.5% ) FY EPS of €22.63. Revenue of €230.68B (+6.2% Y/Y). The company secured $20B euros in battery supplies to underpin an

Nasdaq has a fresh new-high again , as Dow Jones struggles. Worst in Dow 30: BA -2.9%, CAT -2.4% ; Best: G E +1.1%, AAPL +1%, GS +1% . Crude -1.18% to $61.31. Gold -0.04% to $1,323.50. UUP -0.12%. Treasury: 30-year +0.44%. 10-yr +0.17%. 5-yr +0.07%. TLT +0.6%. Winners Tech and Utilities Sectors lead today. Tesla ( TSLA +5.6% ) despite a temporary Model 3 production in Feb. The rally happens after Elon Musk made at SXSW on the timetable for self-driving technology. Musk sees self-driving cars being able to handle all modes of driving by the end of 2019 and sees Tesla's autopilot safer than human drivers within two years. As for the Model 3 news, there's some optimism that the production break will lead to a faster run-rate when the line is buzzing again. We will see what happens. MU +8.8% after a few upgrades. Where were those analysts a few months ago?  WDC +3.3%, NVDA +1.8%... AMZN +1.2% and AAPL +1% also support the Nasdaq. Apple hits new-high today. Its music

Market opened high, before going higher amid two pieces of news. 1. Job Report : 313,000 jobs were added last month vs 200,000 expected. The average hourly wage grew by +0.1%, which is lower than 0.3% in Jan. This report means labor market is still strong, and the inflation might be in control so far. 2. North Korea: Trump announced yesterday that he would meet Kim Jong-Un in May. As always, there will be twists. The White House said today that Trump will not meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un unless he sees some "concrete" action by Pyongyang. I guess this will go to nowhere after all. Crude +3.18% to $62.03. Gold +0.14% to $1,323.60. UUP flat, TLT -0.66% as treasury yields rise a little. 10-yr Treasury stands @ 2.89% today. Winners Financials up big today: JP Morgan (JPM +2.8%), Wells Fargo (WFC +2.7%), Citi (C +2.7%), Morgan Stanley (MS +3%), GS +1.6%, V +1.9%, MA +2.2% and Amex (AXP +2.5%). .. Google +3.1% , Waymo launching self-driving truck pilot

Market holds in green today despite Trump announced tariffs on steel and aluminum , with temporary exemptions for Canada and Mexico and leaving door open for other counties. This water-down plan is exactly what Wall Street expected. Crude -1.42% to $60.28. Gold -0.38% to $1,322.60. UUP +0.64%, TLT +0.57%. Story-line 3 Weeks ago: Wilbur Ross proposed the tariffs, 24% on steel and 10% on aluminum. 1 Week ago: Trump announced he would force the tariffs, 25% and 10%. "24%" might be too difficult for him to remember. 2 Days ago: Gary Cohn decided to quit. 1 Day ago: Republicans spoke loudly against a wide range tariffs, suggesting to narrow down on "China" only. 107 House Republicans send letter to Trump on this concern. Other News China reported the trade surplus of $33.7B amid a staggering rise in export by 44.5%, while imports recorded 6.3% growth in February, a month affected by the Lunar New Year holiday shutdown. Cigna (CI -11.5%) buy ESRX (+8.6%) f

Market is mixed today , with Dow Jones down and Nasdaq up. The indices recovered from early selloff amid the fear of trade-war after top Economic adviser Gary Cohn resigned. The bounce-back is helped by a milder tone from White House, saying Mexico and Canada might exempt from tariffs. Crude -1.96% to $61.37 due to the increase in US crude inventories and production. Gold -0.74% to $1,325.30 . US dollar and treasury yields have little change. Netflix ( NFLX -1.2% ) CEO Reed Hastings expects the company to bring in $15B this year in subscription revenue as it sticks to its plan to pay up to provide quality content, reports Nikkei Asian Review. Winners Autodesk ( ADSK +14.9% ) after ER beats. ANF +11.9% after reporting Q4 EPS of $1.38 beats by $0.28. Revenue of $1.19B (+14.4% Y/Y) beats by $30M. It has a great year as stocks were below $9 last July, jump to above $24 today. MOMO +9% after reporting Q4 EPS of $0.53 beats by $0.07. Revenue of $386.4M (+57.0% Y/Y) beats by $

Stock market has another choppy day as trade-war threat lingers. Indices manage to finish green, lead by Nasdaq (+0.56%) . Paul Ryan urges more 'surgical approach' to tariffs. Some Republicans also disagree with Trump. Crude -0.21% to $62.44. Gold +1.13% to $1,334.80. Dollar falls again UUP -0.25% . Bond yields have little change. Winners Ciena Corp. ( CIEN +10.1% ) after ER beats and inline guidance. Revenue by Segment: Total Networking, $496M (+77% Y/Y); Total Software and Software-Related Services, $53.5M (+8%); Total Global Services, $96.6M (+15%). Cree +9.7% after the company acquired assets of Infineon Technologies AG Radio Frequency Power Business. Semiconductor sector continues its rally: AMAT +4.1%, LCRX +4.9%, WDC +4.3%, MU +3.3%, NVDA +2.8%, INTC +1.9%... NFLX gains another 3.24% . shares jump more than 10% in three days. UPS +3.8% after being upgraded by Stifel Nicolaus to Buy with $121 PT. Chinese Tech: BZUN +31.1% after ER beats, WB +3.3%, SIN

Market swings wildly again, from bear mood to bull, as investors interpreted Trump's latest tweets "Steel tariffs would come off if ‘new & fair’ NAFTA deal struck", hinting possible compromise. Nevertheless, uncertainty is always bad for companies, which should be avoided. Crude +2.19% to $62.59. Gold -0.25% to $1,320.10. Treasury yields and Dollar have little change. Dow Jones is lead by CAT (+3.2%) and BA (+2.3%) . The only red is NKE (-1.3%). In S&P 500, Utilities Sector ( XLU +2% ) is surprisingly the best among all. News Weather : more than 60K people in New York's Westchester County and 65K people in New Jersey were still without power as of midday today. Another winter storm is forecast to hit later this week, and the National Weather Service warns of up to a foot of snow in some areas is possible beginning late Tuesday night. Piper Jaffray releases a new survey asking why people who currently own Apple (AAPL) iPhones didn’t upgrade to the

In near future, 5G networks will bring faster, less latency, and higher coverage to wireless consumers across the United States (actually across the world). In Dec 2017 , the 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP), has approved the first 5G network standards six months ahead of schedule. 3GPP is expected to publish the specifications soon that will enable companies to start building 5G equipment. 5G is shorthand for the fifth generation of mobile networks. It will be the next wireless standard implemented beyond the current 4G protocol. The benefits will be immense and immediately recognizable. Data rates for 5G are expected to be 10~100 times faster than 4G and LTE systems, with download speeds up to 10 Gbps. 5G has dominated this year's Mobile World Congress (MWC) in Barcelona. Huawei announced its first 5G chip, which will allow the company's mobile devices to access the next generation of cellular networks. In this article, I would like to pick a few possibl

I have discussed the stocks which may benefit from Tax Reform exactly 3 months ago. HERE is the link. At that moment, The tax bill was not passed into law yet. Also were not clear the details. In this article, I will summarize what the changes are in the Tax Bill. I will also discuss the performance of the stocks in different sectors and potential buying opportunities. Recap Tax Reform President Trump signed the "Tax Cuts and Jobs Act" into law on Dec. 22. The Senate passed the bill on Dec. 20 by a party-line vote of 51 to 48. The House passed the bill later in the day by a vote of 224 to 201. The law cuts corporate tax rates permanently and individual tax rates temporarily (expire after 2025). It permanently removes the individual mandate, a key provision of the Affordable Care Act, which is likely to raise insurance premiums and significantly reduce the number of people with coverage. Corporate Tax Rate from 35% to 21% The law creates a single corporate tax r