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Market 2018-05-18 (DE, AMAT, JWN, CPB, and more)

Market is nervous on the US-China Trade Talk, which has not show clear picture yet. Indices finished in red, semiconductor sector is sold off after AMAT ERs. 30-year +0.56%. 10-yr +0.32%. 5-yr +0.18%. TLT +0.86%. Crude -0.25% to $71.31. Gold +0.17% to $1,291.60. UUP +0.2%. Winners DE +5.8% on pledge to raise equipment prices to fight rising costs, despite the companies missed both top and bottom lines. XLI +0.6%: CAT +1.3%, BA +2.1%... MOMO +3.7%, however, rival YY -1% as HUYA dropped another 4.8%. PYPL +2% on $2.2B iZettle acquisition. Losers AMAT -8.3% after disappointing guidance, SOXX -1.4%: LRCX -3.8%, KLAC -3.4%, STX -4.6%, WDC -2.1%... CPB -12.4% after reporting mixed ER, and CEO exit. FY2018 Guidance: Net sales: +10% to +11%; Adjusted EBIT: -8% to -6%; Adjusted EPS: $2.85 to $2.90 (-6% to -5%). Staples stocks has been under pressure this year as rate rises. JWN -10.9% after off-price sales disappoint. M manages to stay green. BIDU -9.5% as COO
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Market 2018-05-17 (WMT, NTES, JCP, and more)

As the negotiation kicks off, Trump says I 'doubt' China trade negotiations will succeed. Market is not happy, although indices recover from session lows. Treasury down again: 30-year -0.4%. 10-yr -0.03%. TLT -0.5%. Crude +0.14% to $71.59. Gold -0.09% to $1,290.30. UUP +0.12%. Mortgage rates surge to seven-year high in Freddie Mac survey. The 30-year fixed averaged 4.61% for the week, reaching its highest level since May, 2011, while the 15-year fixed averaged 4.08%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year and the 15-year fixed rates averaged a respective 4.02% and 3.27%. This is good news for banks, bad news for home builders. Winners Baozun +18.8% on Q1 beats, 16% Y/Y revenue growth. YY +3.5% received new Buy rating from Hua Tai with $126.5 PT. MOMO +2.7% . However, HUYA -11.1%. VLO +4.7% on Morgan Stanley upgrade ($140 PT). MPC +5.2%, PSX +3.6%... Losers WMT -1.9% despite ER beats and 33% growth in E-commerce. NTES -7.5% on mixed ER. Jefferies ha
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Market 2018-05-16 (M, Tencent, and more)

Bulls win today despite rising rates , as strong earnings from Tencent and Macy's boost investors confidence. 30-year -0.24%. 10-yr -0.15%. 5-yr -0.08%. TLT -0.38%. Crude +0.27% to $71.50. Gold -0.03% to $1,289.90. UUP +0.24%. Winners Macy's M +10.8% : Q1 EPS of $0.42 beats by $0.07. Revenue of $5.54B (+3.6% Y/Y) beats by $150M. Owned plus licensed comparable sales increased 4.2% during the quarter and owned basis comparable sales were up 3.9% to sail past analyst expectations. Operating income improved to 4.3% of sales from 4.1% a year ago. Macy's expects sales growth of -1.0% to +0.5% and lifts full-year EPS guidance to $3.75 to $3.95 for FY18 vs. $3.60 consensus, meaning forward PE will be only 8.6. Other retailers are also up: XRT +1.6% (retail ETF), UAA 8.7%, UA +6.9%, KSS +1.9%, JWN +2.4%, TGT +2.9%, COST +1.7% (very close to $200 now), WMT +1.9%, NKE +2.7%, LB +2.6%, GPS +1.3%... DIS +2% . As I said after earnings, the selloff after that was ridiculo
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Market 2018-05-15 (Retail Sale, Interest Rates, and more)

Indices drop as rates raise again. 10-year treasury yield jumps to 3.074%. TLT -1.13%. Crude +0.27% to $71.15. Gold -2.02% to $1,291.60, drops to lowest in 2018, as US dollar holds strength, UUP +0.6%. Winner Retail sales were up 4.7% in April Y/Y. Categories with strong growth included clothing/clothing accessories (+4.1% Y/Y) and furniture/home furnishing stores (+6.1% Y/Y). KSS +3.3%, BBBY +2.5%, GPS +2.6%, UAA +2.4%, NKE +1%, DKS +1%... Macy's ( M +1%) trades higher ahead of tomorrow's Q1 ER. Analysts expect the retailer to disclose revenue of $5.43B and EPS of $0.37. Full-year guidance from management will be a crucial test to see if new initiatives are starting to pay off. Consensus estimates are for Macy's to guide for revenue of $24.79B and EPS of $3.59. WDC +2.3%, MU +1.9% both continue to bounce back. Stifel raises its MU PT from $95 to $101. SQM +2.1% , Chinese lithium company Tianqi near deal to buy stake in Chile's SQM. ALB +1.6%. MAT +
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Market 2018-05-14 (TGT, WDC, XRX, and more)

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Market has a peaceful day, in contradiction to the bloody mess in Israel, or terrorist attack in France. Bonds yields inch higher : 30-year -0.11%. 10-yr -0.02%. 5-yr -0.02%. TLT -0.5%. Crude -1.18% to $70.52. Gold -0.31% to $1,318.20. UUP +0.12%. Winners: SYMC +9.6% bounces back after the free-fall last week amid Audit investigation. Retailers are recovering, TGT +3.8% as buying action picks up in the week ahead of the retailer's earnings report scheduled for May 23; Baird has an Outperform rating on Target and a price target of $85. GPS +4.1%, LB +2.8% ... WDC +2.9% on JPMorgan initiation with an Overweight rating (BUY), . MU +2.3%.  BABA +2.2% , it touched $200 today. YY +3% continued to bounce back. QD +6.3% also jumped. Biotech continues last Friday's rally, IBB +1%.  Also CVS +3.7%. Losers Xerox ( XRX -4.3% ) says it has reached a settlement agreement with investors Carl Icahn and Darwin Deason and will end its merger deal with Fujifilm Tes
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Market 2018-05-11 (American Patients First? 5G, NVDA, and more)

Market is mixed today, not bad to end the week-long rally. Treasury yields have little change, TLT +0.25%. Crude -1.14% to $70.55. Gold -0.23% to $1,319.30, UUP -0.15% Key points from President Trump's speech detailing his plan to lower U.S. drug prices called American Patients First (lame name though): Bans pharmacist gag rule against advising patients on pricing. FDA will accelerate approval process for generics and biosimilars. Will "fix" price disparity between U.S. and foreign markets (specifics not provided). Most of the tough talk was directed at the middlemen who negotiate drug costs for insurance companies. Not including: call for Medicare to negotiate lower prescription drug prices. XBI +3%, IBB +2.7%, XLV +1.5%, CVS +3.2%, ESRX +2.6%... Winners As discussed above, a lot of healthcare sector winners: REGN +6.3%, VRTX +3.3%, ALGN +3.2%, BIIB +3.1% ... VZ +3% as JPMorgan boosts to Overweight on 5G. T +1.3%, CMCSA +1.1%. FB +0.8% conti
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Market 2018-05-10 (NVDA, IQ, LB, and more)

Another day of broad rally, not only in stock market, but also bonds and commodities. Treasury: 30-year +0.44%. 10-yr +0.14%. 5-yr +0.04%. TLT +0.8%. Crude +0.35% to $71.39. Gold +0.6% to $1,320.90. Winners IQ +11.3% . GS initiated 2 days ago at Buy rating and $23 PT. It finished @ $20.72 today. BIDU +2.8%. UBNT +11% , after reporting Q3 EPS of $0.98 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $250.4M (+14.7% Y/Y) beats by $2.48M. New $200M buyback. CTL +7.5% after reporting Q1 EPS of $0.25 beats by $0.07. Revenue of $5.95B (+41.3% Y/Y) misses by $50M. Petrobras PBR +7.1% upgraded by BAML to Buy. NVDA +1.7% rised to all-time-high ahead of ERs. MU +3.2%, SOXX +1.8%. FB +1.6% carries its momentum after ER; AAPL +1.4% new All-time-high, GOOG +1.4% ... Losers LB -7.2% on updating Q1 earnings guidance to lower end. Other retailers are also affected: M -2.4%, KSS -1.4%, JWN -1.4%, GPS -1.4%... BKNG -4.7% despite ER beats. ALB -3.3% despite ER beats. Earnings in AH Nvidia
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