Market 2018-03-12 (TSLA, AAPL, CI, and more)

Nasdaq has a fresh new-high again, as Dow Jones struggles.

Worst in Dow 30: BA -2.9%, CAT -2.4%; Best: GE +1.1%, AAPL +1%, GS +1%.

Crude -1.18% to $61.31. Gold -0.04% to $1,323.50. UUP -0.12%. Treasury: 30-year +0.44%. 10-yr +0.17%. 5-yr +0.07%. TLT +0.6%.

Winners

Tech and Utilities Sectors lead today.

Tesla (TSLA +5.6%) despite a temporary Model 3 production in Feb. The rally happens after Elon Musk made at SXSW on the timetable for self-driving technology. Musk sees self-driving cars being able to handle all modes of driving by the end of 2019 and sees Tesla's autopilot safer than human drivers within two years. As for the Model 3 news, there's some optimism that the production break will lead to a faster run-rate when the line is buzzing again. We will see what happens.

MU +8.8% after a few upgrades. Where were those analysts a few months ago? WDC +3.3%, NVDA +1.8%...

AMZN +1.2% and AAPL +1% also support the Nasdaq. Apple hits new-high today. Its music hits 38M paid subscribers (16M unlimited), up 2M from last month, according to the company. Also SNAP +2%, SQ +1.3%, BABA +1.1%, BIDU +0.8%.

Losers

NFLX -3.1%. An article by Financial Times' Dan McCrum asks when does Netflix crash? McCrum points out that Netflix relies on heavy borrowing to pay for its expenses. "The debt is rated junk, four notches below investment grade. Were credit markets to close, as they periodically do to weaker borrowers in moments of strife, Nextflix would be shut out, " he warns. Citron Research joined the short-selling.

CI -3.5% is facing doubts on its decision to takeout ESRX (-3.1%). CI is health insurer, and ESRX is medicine middleman. The takeover makes perfect sense. The synergy will boost CI profit margin once they finish the integration. I think this is great buying opportunity. I initiate my position today. Note: the acquisition will be lengthy. CI is expecting by the end of 2018. 

AMWD -8.2%, a selloff one day after ER? strange.

DECK -7.4%, the company makes UGG, amid Marcato Capital Management exit, and downgrade from Pivotal Research with $108 PT (down from $122).

My Trades Today

Sold DKL @ $29.6
Double down YY, average down to $118
Bought CI @ $168.5

Earnings Tomorrow

pre-market:   DKS, DSW, VLKAY

Comments

  1. UnknownMarch 12, 2018 at 2:24 PM

    AMWD 周5的print不怎么样，当时收盘涨了还觉的很奇怪。感觉builders和home improvement整个sector就不太行，主要是margins concern（至少今年前半年），成本上升。纳指不知道为什么涨的这样，也不是很理解为什么半导体最近这么强 - 听说它们cheap，但是这种cyclical stocks fundamentals往peak去的时候，valuation本来就是要compressed （earnings moving up）。顺便问以下JD 到底有没有希望了？

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownMarch 12, 2018 at 2:43 PM

      对，我就是纳闷AMWD周五涨了，周一才跌，坑人玩。我只有HD，倒是不担心。纳指有些疯魔了，比如SQ这样的股，天天涨，BTC跌它也涨，有些莫名其妙。半导体有些涨过了，看内存的价格趋势，2018年以来一直在跌，虽然幅度不大，但是飙升势头早就破了，所有公司都在扩容，价格必然继续下滑。可惜我wdc卖早了点，没到90就卖了。JD当然是有希望的，但是近期没有爆发的催化剂，等下个季报再说吧

      Delete
    2. UnknownMarch 12, 2018 at 3:10 PM

      现在的SQ感觉就像先前的WTW没人能阻挡它上涨的脚步，然后WTW就崩盘了，说是Oprah卸载了一批。在$62和$60的时候进了一些，也不知道会怎么样。

      Delete
    3. UnknownMarch 12, 2018 at 6:43 PM

      又想了一下SQ，momentum大概是由于technical breakout triggering buying signals, 未必有多少fundamental support。它那个季报也就那么回事。很多这种momentum未必能持久，有可能在某一天崩盘，参见WTW，好点的能consolidate，参见RNG，但是这两个股的print相对SQ强了不少。我猜SQ的put现在估计很贵吧。

      Delete
    4. UnknownMarch 12, 2018 at 10:16 PM

      同感。WTW的增长和盈利情况还挺好的，你的进价不错。

      Delete

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