Market 2018-02-28 (GDP, HLF, and more)
We have the afternoon sell again, which started @ 2:30pm.
Indices finished Feb with red records, Dow Jones -4.3%, SP500 -3.9% and Nasdaq -1.8%. Energy and Materials Sectors lead the fall today. We cannot blame bonds today, as yields actually dropped.
Crude -2.38% to $61.51. Gold +0.02% to $1,318.80. UUP +0.3%.
Best in Dow 30: UTX +0.6%; worst in Dow 30: CAT -4.1%.
SNAP +6.1%, on a report that 397 brands such as Lyft, Pepsi, Exxon, and Olay bought video ads on Snapchat's 52 Discover channels between November of 2017 and January 2018, according to a new study by MediaRadar, an ad intelligence company. As comparison, Facebook has more than 5 million advertisers. TWTR +1.7%.
HLF +6.3%: CNBC reports that short seller Bill Ackman has exited from his much-publicized short bet on Herbalife. You may find my coverage on Bill Ackman fail stories HERE.
New Media Investment Group (NEWM +7.1%) after Q4 earnings showed an acquisition-fueled 18% jump in revenues and and 82% gain in profits.
M +3.5%, as I said yesterday, M has lot of room to go up as the ship is turning around. Revenue starts to grow again, all the new directions (rewards program, backstage concept, selling real estate to pay down debts, etc) are working well. Forward P/E is only 8, with 5.1% dividend. Stock price has gone up almost 70% from Nov 2017 low ($17.5).
BGS -11.2%, despite EPS beat and 14.5% revenue growth. For 2018, Adjusted EBITDA of $347.5M ~ 365.0M (vs $333.2M in 2017); Adjusted diluted earnings per share of $2.05 to $2.25 (vs $2.12 in 2017). Its $1.86/year dividend (6%) is safe and the company will focus on paying down debts in 2018.
ELF -9.3% amid weak guidance.
ALB -10% despite ER beats and solid guidance. For FY 2018, ALB forecasts EPS of $5.00-$5.40 vs. $5.14 analyst consensus estimate on revenues of $3.2B-$3.4B vs. $3.23B consensus; the company also sees 2018 EBITDA of $955M-$1.005B. SQM -5.1%, LIT -3.9%.
VRX -11.4% after Q4 misses and soft guidance.
ACAD -20% after Q4 Nuplazid sales disappoint.
Indices finished Feb with red records, Dow Jones -4.3%, SP500 -3.9% and Nasdaq -1.8%. Energy and Materials Sectors lead the fall today. We cannot blame bonds today, as yields actually dropped.
Crude -2.38% to $61.51. Gold +0.02% to $1,318.80. UUP +0.3%.
Best in Dow 30: UTX +0.6%; worst in Dow 30: CAT -4.1%.
News
- French GDP grows at 2% in 2017, best since 2011.
- US 2017Q4 GDP is revised down to 2.5%, vs previous estimate 2.6%.
- DKS (+0.7%) is going to stop selling all assault-style rifles and high-capacity magazines at its stores, also raise age-limit to 21.
Winners
ETSY +20.4% after strong revenue outlook.SNAP +6.1%, on a report that 397 brands such as Lyft, Pepsi, Exxon, and Olay bought video ads on Snapchat's 52 Discover channels between November of 2017 and January 2018, according to a new study by MediaRadar, an ad intelligence company. As comparison, Facebook has more than 5 million advertisers. TWTR +1.7%.
HLF +6.3%: CNBC reports that short seller Bill Ackman has exited from his much-publicized short bet on Herbalife. You may find my coverage on Bill Ackman fail stories HERE.
New Media Investment Group (NEWM +7.1%) after Q4 earnings showed an acquisition-fueled 18% jump in revenues and and 82% gain in profits.
M +3.5%, as I said yesterday, M has lot of room to go up as the ship is turning around. Revenue starts to grow again, all the new directions (rewards program, backstage concept, selling real estate to pay down debts, etc) are working well. Forward P/E is only 8, with 5.1% dividend. Stock price has gone up almost 70% from Nov 2017 low ($17.5).
Losers
CELG -9% after reporting possible delay of its MS drug (FDA is looking for additional data, not clear just paperwork or more clinic data). The drug was expected to approve by the end of year. The company has confirmed its 2018 guidance, non-GAAP EPS $8.70~8.90. At current price $87, forward P/E is below 10. The company has new $5B buyback program, which was approved on 2/14/2018.BGS -11.2%, despite EPS beat and 14.5% revenue growth. For 2018, Adjusted EBITDA of $347.5M ~ 365.0M (vs $333.2M in 2017); Adjusted diluted earnings per share of $2.05 to $2.25 (vs $2.12 in 2017). Its $1.86/year dividend (6%) is safe and the company will focus on paying down debts in 2018.
ELF -9.3% amid weak guidance.
ALB -10% despite ER beats and solid guidance. For FY 2018, ALB forecasts EPS of $5.00-$5.40 vs. $5.14 analyst consensus estimate on revenues of $3.2B-$3.4B vs. $3.23B consensus; the company also sees 2018 EBITDA of $955M-$1.005B. SQM -5.1%, LIT -3.9%.
VRX -11.4% after Q4 misses and soft guidance.
ACAD -20% after Q4 Nuplazid sales disappoint.
Earnings in AH
- Universal Health Services (UHS -2.9%): Q4 EPS of $2.00 beats by $0.16. Revenue of $2.64B (+6.5% Y/Y) beats by $10M.
- Mylan (MYL -1.9%): Q4 EPS of $1.43 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $3.24B (-0.9% Y/Y) misses by $60M.
- L Brands (LB +2.4%): Q4 EPS of $2.11 beats by $0.06. Revenue of $4.82B (+7.3% Y/Y) beats by $100M. Shares -9.7% in AH.
- Salesforce.com (CRM -0.2%): Q4 EPS of $0.35 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $2.85B (+24.5% Y/Y) beats by $40M.
- Box (BOX +0.2%): Q4 EPS of -$0.06 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $136.7M (+24.4% Y/Y) in-line. Shares -10.5% due to downside guidance.
- Monster Beverage (MNST -1.2%): Q4 EPS of $0.35 misses by $0.02. Revenue of $810.36M (+7.5% Y/Y) misses by $32.68M. Shares -8% in AH.
My Trades Today
- Added more LIT
- Sold ULTA @ $208.8, and bought more back @ $203.5.
- Bought BGS @ $28
- Bought back FB @ $180 (I sold last week)
Earnings Tomorrow
- pre-market: AMC, AMCX, BBY, BNED, CNQ, KSS, NSM, USCR
- post-market: GPS, JWN, MBI, SPLK, SRPT, VMW, ZIOP
今天大盘反转的很奇怪啊，感觉突然间崩溃了。ALB最大的问题是lithium pricing 已经 peak了，是supply-side driven 不是demand-side的问题。大大小小的矿场都在加快增产，对于任何commodity cycle都不是好事。当然lithium是比较特殊的commodity，那也是commodity。Potash, Bromine都是很特殊的commodity，最后都崩盘了，好几年缓不过来。
ReplyDeletelithium从年初的高点下来，但是大的趋势还没破，我还是坚持一下，毕竟刚需挺强的
Delete我觉得lithium pricing cycle coming off peak 趋势已经很明显了。今天conference call 中 Luke 反复强调他看重的是lithium margins不是volumes - 已经是比较强的暗示，如果chase volumes 的话，是不能保证价格的。还有他在智利增产要交智利政府更多的税和知识产权费。这些都不是什么好事。EV对lithium最大的需求是在中国而不是在美国，中国的产能增加也是最快最激进的。而且ALB的valuation multiple 相对其他成长型公司来说还是比较高，个人觉得这个股短期蛮难有大的起色，估计是range bound at best。
Delete感觉 ulta elf都是很难做的股。
Delete忘了说一句ALB 的 lithium margins 对pricing 比对 volumes 更敏感的多，这是Luke不愿意chase volumes 的原因，因为incremental volumes 增加需要价格让步。中国的lithium miners不关心价格，他们的margins 对volumes和市场份额更敏感，就像钢铁啊铁矿石化肥之类的，中国人喜欢也习惯价格战，这对任何一种commmodity cycle 都是致命的。ALB再这种情况下很难做的。
Delete