Market 2018-02-22 (Energy, ROKU, AAOI, and more)

It is another choppy day. Dow Jones up, Nasdaq down.

Leaders in Dow 30: UTX +3.3%, CAT+2.3%, MMM +1.7%. 

Crude +1.52% to $62.62. Gold +0.08% to $1,333.10. UUP -0.34%.

Crude oil prices are climbing after U.S. crude stockpiles fell unexpectedly by 1.61M barrels last week, compared with analyst consensus for a 1.8M barrel increase.

Energy (XLE +1.1%) leads: CHK +21.7%, WLL +25.2%, GPOR +14%, COP +2.2%, APC +1.8%, HES +4.1%, MUR +3.7%, ETP +4.1%, RIG +3.9%, SWN +5.4%...

On News


  • Top Ford exec in North America out due to inappropriate actions.

  • Toyota dominates Consumer Reports 2018 Top Picks for vehicles. Korean cars are also climbing up the rankings.

  • ToysRUs may close another 200 stores, on top of the 182 annouced last year.

Winners

Chesapeake Energy (CHK +21.7%): Q4 EPS of $0.30 beats by $0.06. Revenue of $2.52B (+24.8% Y/Y) beats by $240M. Q4 production +15% Y/Y and +10% Q/Q, and oil production +11% Y/Y. CHK forecasts total 2018 production to grow +3% Y/Y, with oil volumes expected to +5%.

CAR +13.5% and HTZ +15.7%, rental car companies are having short-squeeze after CAR's earnings. However, Goldman Sachs is out with a note to clients suggesting buying puts on both, saying "lowing price trends, headwinds from growing off-lease vehicle supply, continued on-airport competition, and rising interest rates."

UTX (+3.3%) is considering breakup thi year.

WMT (+1.4%) bounces back a little. HD +1.3%.

Losers

Wayfair (W -22.7%) after reporting mixed results: Q4 EPS of -$0.58 misses by $0.06. Revenue of $1.44B (+46.3% Y/Y) beats by $80M. It is valued so rich just because it is an online store? I will call it "dot com bubble".

AAOI -20.4% as revenue shrinks and disappointing guidance. Craig-Hallum has downgraded shares to Sell from Hold with PT dropping from $32 to $17.

 ROKU -17.7%. 

  • Revenues grew 28% overall, driven by platform growth of 129% (to $85.4M of a total of $188.3M) that made up for a single-digit decline in player revenues.
  • It's guiding to Q1 net revenue of $120M-$130M (light of consensus for $131.7M), net income of -$21M to -$15M and EBITDA of -$16M to -$10M (vs. consensus for -$13.4M).
  • For the full year, it's forecasting net revenue of $660M-$690M (vs. consensus for $661.6M), net income of -$55M to -$40M and EBITDA of -$25M to -$10M (vs. consensus for -$18.3M).
  • P -7.2% reversed the rally after ER. I initiated a small position.

UCTT -6.5% after Q4 EPS miss, low EPS guidance.

TPX -8.8% after reporting Q4 EPS of $0.79 misses by $0.03. Revenue of $648.2M (-15.9% Y/Y) misses by $31.19M.

SAM -13.6%. Full-year guidance EPS of $6.30~7.30 to fall short of the consensus $7.54.

SAFM -5.7% after great ER. I will watch it closely in the coming days.

Earnings in AH


  1. First Solar (FSLR -0.6%): Q4 EPS of -$0.25 beats by $0.06. Revenue of $339.18M (+2.5% Y/Y) misses by $120.74M. FSLR raises its guidance for FY 2018. Shares -3.4% in AH.
  2. Century Aluminum (CENX -4.3%): Q4 EPS of $0.26 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $400.6M (+17.9% Y/Y) misses by $26.1M. Shares +5.5% in AH.
  3. GoDaddy (GDDY -0.5%) Q4 EPS of $0.56 beats by $0.47. Revenue of $602.2M (+23.9% Y/Y) beats by $7.63M. Upside Q1 guidance. Shares +4.5% in AH.
  4. HPE (+1%) Q1 beats with an 11.6% Y/Y revenue growth. Upside Q2 guidance has EPS from $0.29~0.33 (consensus: $0.26) and FY18 guidance has EPS from $1.35~1.45 (consensus: $1.18). Shares +12% in AH.
  5. HPQ (+1%) Q4 EPS of $0.56 beats by $0.47. Revenue of $602.2M (+23.9% Y/Y) beats by $7.63M. Shares +5.7% in AH.
  6. OLED (-0.5%) FY18 guidance: revenue $350~380M vs $397.30M consensus. Shares -13% in AH.
  7. The Trade Desk (TTD -2.8%): Q4 EPS of $0.54 beats by $0.11. Revenue of $102.6M (+41.7% Y/Y) beats by $0.9M. Shares +13.6% in AH.
  8. Herbalife (HLF): Q4 EPS of $1.29 beats by $0.33. Revenue of $1.1B (+5.8% Y/Y) beats by $20M. Shares -4.3% in AH.
  9. Wingstop (WING +2.3%): Q4 EPS of $0.17 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $28.25M (+14.1% Y/Y) beats by $0.69M. Shares -10.3% in AH.
  10. Redfin (RDFN +1.3%): Q4 EPS of -$0.02 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $95.8M (+43.5% Y/Y) beats by $4.37M. Q1 guidance revenue from $74.6~78.4M (consensus: $80.05M). Shares -6.4% in AH.

My Trades Today


  • Initiated small position in P @ $4.42.

Earnings Tomorrow


  • pre-market:   CNK, COG, RBS

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