Market 2018-02-14 (CPI & treasuries, and more)

Today's big rally is a surprise.

10-yr treasury yield jumps to 2.913% after CPI (consumer price index) data:

  • January CPI +0.5% vs 0.3% projected. 
  • Excluding food and energy prices, +0.3% vs 0.2% expected. 

Market was very negative in pre-market as Dow Jones dropped as much as 450 points. However, Indices have climbed higher and higher throughout the day. I guess traders are now betting on less rate hikes this year? All in a sudden, treasury yields are not an issue? I really don't have the answer.

Crude +2.55% to $60.70. Gold +1.86% to $1,355.10, as dollar drops again (UUP -0.8%). For the week, UUP has dropped from 23.6 to 23.2.

The FBI, CIA and NSA say American citizens shouldn't use Huawei phones. They don't have problems with Samsung or LG...

Winners

Financial (XLF +2.4%) and Tech (QQQ +1.9%) lead again: FB +3.6%, NFLX +3%, AMZN +2.6%, AAPL +1.8%, GOOG +1.7%, NVDA +3.8%, LRCX +6.1%, AMAT +4.9%, SNAP +5%...

Chinese stocks perform strong after Baidu's earnings: BIDU +4.6%, NTES +2%, BABA +4.2%, JD +5.2%, WUBA +6.6%, WB +7.7%, SINA +4.7%, YY +8.6%, MOMO +8.1%, QD +4.5%...

TGT (+2%) received upgrade from Baird. Retailers are doing well today: M +3%, KSS +2.6%, JWN +2.4%, COST +1.7%, FL +4.2%, NKE +3.2%, UA +5.7%, UAA +6.3%, SHOP +9.1%...

Steel makers go higher SLX +3.8%, X +5.1%, MT +4.7%< AKS +7%, CLF +3.2%, NUE +1.7%...

Gold miners enjoy the rising gold price, GDX +4.6%, NUGT +13.9% (DUST -14%).

FOSL jumped 88% today after ER! The company says it is now focus on wearables. FIT +9.5%.

CMG +15.4% after naming new CEO (from Taco Bell).

TWLO +16.2% after the cloud communications company reported a narrower than expected Q4 loss and a 41% Y/Y revenue increase. TWLO forecasts Q4 revenues of $115-117M vs. $108M analyst consensus estimate, and revenues of $506-514M vs. $481M consensus for the full year.

HLT + 3.3% after reporting Q4 EPS of $0.54 beat by $0.09, Revenue of $2.28B (+23.9%) beat by $40.00M.

Molson Coors (TAP +6.3%) after reporting mixed earnings.

Athenahealth (ATHN +5.6%) provided guidance for 2018: Revenues: $1.31B - 1.38B; operating income: $108M - 152M; non-GAAP operating income: $210M - 235M.

CNBC reports that Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has established a $358M stake in Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (TEVA +4.4%). Shares are +6.8% after hours.

Losers

REITs (IYR -0.5%) and Utilities (XLU -1.1%) are hurt by rising treasury yields. Some dividend blue-chips are also under-performing: PG -1%, MCD -1.5%, JNJ -0.2%...

BIIB -6.7% despite Biotech companies perform well today (IBB +2%). The plunge happens after the company says it's sizing up by about 510 patients its aducanumab (for Alzheimer) trials due to "increased variability." Traders are considering it as "bad news".

Avis Budget (CAR -3.5%). Goldman Sachs thinks Avis Budget will face pressure from an increase in off-lease vehicles and increased competition at airports. HTZ +0.6%.

GRPN -9.5% after reporting Q4 EPS of $0.07 misses by $0.02. Revenue of $873.17M (-3.5% Y/Y) beats by $20.36M.

Earnings in AH

Agilent (A +2%): Q1 EPS of $0.66 beats by $0.08. Revenue of $1.21B (+14.2% Y/Y) beats by $50M. Shares +2.6% in AH.

Cisco (CSCO +2.1%): Q2 EPS of $0.63 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $11.88B (+2.6% Y/Y) beats by $70M. Shares +6.4% in AH.

Applied Materials (AMAT +4.9%): Q1 EPS of $1.06 beats by $0.08. Revenue of $4.2B (+28.0% Y/Y) beats by $80M. Shares +1.5% in AH.

SunPower (SPWR +1.4%): Q4 EPS of $0.25 beats by $0.14. Revenue of $824M (-25.1% Y/Y) beats by $32.71M.
Shares -7.1% in AH.

TripAdvisor (TRIP +2.1%): Q4 EPS of $0.06 misses by $0.08. Revenue of $321M (+1.6% Y/Y) beats by $8.83M. Shares +15.4% in AH.

Equinix (EQIX): Q4 EPS of $0.82 may not be comparable to consensus of $1.18. Revenue of $1.2B (+27.3% Y/Y) beats by $10M. Share -3.6% in AH.

Annaly Capital Management (NLY): Q4 EPS of $0.31 beats by $0.01. Interest income of $745.42M (-7.6% Y/Y) beats by $70.08M.

My Trades Today


  • Sold FIT @ $5.6
  • Sold AAPL @ $167.2
  • Sold AMAT @ $53.6 in AH
  • Added more TIS

Earnings Tomorrow


  • pre-market:   AVP, KIM, SHOP, TRP, WM
  • post-market:  AUY, CBS, CRAY, EEP, NUS, SHAK, TRUE, WES, WGP

Comments

  1. UnknownFebruary 14, 2018 at 2:48 PM

    今天不少是panic buying，有点像牛市末尾的征兆。不知道是福还是祸。short term和long term都不容易做。听说股神加持果子，说明他对股市至少短期不看好。前几天果子没人要的时候，买了它的call，觉得这个在这个市场环境下可以有，和持股相比，可以说是便宜大碗了。

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownFebruary 14, 2018 at 2:56 PM

      semi 现在最大的问题是老有人call cycle peak，如果真是对的，那些股的估值会降低（discount peaking earnings），同时earnings和guidance会很好 （signals for cycle peak）。cyclical investors很多是sell on strength/rebound，和trade周期性的原材料股，化肥股，农机股之类的有些相似，同时这些股的volatility会加剧，比较难做。**MU LRCX AMAT**.

      Delete
    2. UnknownFebruary 14, 2018 at 4:52 PM

      可惜今天卖了果子，总觉得调整不会这样就结束了，所以今天腾仓位。确实难做，大方向看不清。现在半导体涨不动，季报再好也有人唱衰，所以盘后卖了amat，应该近期有机会再买回来

      Delete
    3. UnknownFebruary 14, 2018 at 7:07 PM

      This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    4. UnknownFebruary 14, 2018 at 7:10 PM

      我要是你也会逢高出货或是买put/卖call来hedge amat long。semi现在的sentiment和momentum都不行。季报越好同时volatility加剧，越reinforce看空的人cycle peak的看法。这些股现在这种情况下只能trade不能hold，看看mu lrcx 季报后的走法就知道了。

      Delete
  2. UnknownFebruary 14, 2018 at 6:24 PM

    Matta，看看ALGN哦。

    ReplyDelete

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