Market 2018-02-13 (AAPL, CMG, WB, BIDU, and more)

The market shakes off the morning weakness and finishes green. Tech, Retailers and Basic Materials lead. 

Treasury yields are stable. 10-yr note 2.83%. Crude -0.17% to $59.19. Gold +0.43% to $1,332.10.

Winners

NVDA (+2%) returns to rally mode after CFO Kress said Nvidia’s data center business continues to benefit from AI growth and management is focused on a wide set of customers and uses rather than specific applications. Nvidia is well positioned to benefit from the adoption of self-driving cars.

AMZN (+2%) and AAPL (+1%) contribute a lot to QQQ +0.47%. SQ +5.5%, TWTR +8%.

Apple 1st shareholder meeting in its new headquarter

  • CEO Cook says mobile payments haven't taken off like he thought they would. 
  • Wearables are booming.
  • Healthcare opportunities: Apple includes a health app on its iPhones, and it plans to introduce a new Health Records update to iOS to let you store your medical records.
  • Apple spent $12 billion last year on R&D. This year budget will be $16 billion.
  • It plans to invest $30 billion in the US over the next five years by building its new campus (2nd headquarter) and creating 20,000 new jobs.
  • No special dividend, but will have dividend hike.

WB (+9.7%) and SINA (+6.2%) jump after ER. WB Q4 earnings beat easily.

  • Advertising and marketing revenues +77%, net income jumped to $131M from $43M. 
  • Monthly active users rose to 392M after net adds of 79M users Y/Y; mobile MAUs were 93% of the total. Average daily active users had net adds of about 33M Y/Y to hit 172M. 
  • Revenue breakout: Advertising and marketing, $332M (+77%); value-added service, $45M (+81.4%).
  • Q1 guidance: revenues of $335-345M, well above consensus $303.1M.
  • Sina profits grow by 25%, benefitted from WB.

Retailers higher: KR +3.4%, COST +1.7%, TGT +2.8%, M +2.9%, KSS +2.9%, JWN +1.7%...

UA (+16%), UAA (+17.4%) skyrocket after ER, probably due to short-squeeze.

  • Q4 EPS of $0.00 in-line. Revenue of $1.37B (+4.6% Y/Y) beats by $60M. 
  • Apparel revenue +2%, footwear sales +9%. 
  • Gross margin was 43.2% below 44.7% a year ago. 
  • For 2018, the company expects revenue to be up at a low single-digit percentage rate, reflecting a mid-single-digit decline in North America offset by 25% international growth. FY18 EPS of $0.14-0.19 vs. $0.20 consensus. 
  • I still think it is over-valued as the repssure from Adidas, Nike (NKE -0.2%) and Sketchers (SKX +0.4%).

AmerisourceBergen (ABC +9.3%) following a report that Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA -0.2%) has made a takeover approach.

GNC (+18.1%) after reporting same store sales increased 5.7% in domestic company-owned stores in Q4 and 2.0% at domestic franchised locations. Despite the gains, total sales fell short of consensus estimates ($558M vs $569M).

MLM +2.7% after reporting strong Q4 data.

  • Revenues rising 2.5% Y/Y to $911M, including solid pricing growth across all product lines and segments. 
  • Guidance for FY18, seeing revenues of $4.16-4.36B above consensus $4.07B. 
  • It remains confident the U.S. is "in the midst of a steady multi-year construction recovery."

Steel industry is higher after Trump's comments and raising rebar prices (+$25/st): SLX +1.2% (ETF), X +1.6%, MT +1.9%, AKS +1.7%, NUE +1%, CLF +2.2%, 

Chipotle (CMG -1.2%) poped +11.3% in AH after the company officially announces that Brian Niccol (Taco Bell CEO) has been hired as CEO and will be added to the company's board.

Losers

FB (-1.9%) after Google (GOOG flat) unveiled new tech that lets publishers create Snapchat (SNAP -0.3%) and Instagram-style (FB) visual stories in a mobile-friendly format. The stories are called AMP and can feature swipeable text, photos, graphics, and videos. I am not sure about the impact yet. Based on the failure of google+, I guess it is negligible.

Car dealers retreat from recent rally: CarMax (KMX -3.5%), AutoNation (AN -2.2%) and Penske Automotive Group (PAG -2.3%).

Earnings in AH

BIDU (+1.8%) Q4 EPS of $2.29 beats by $0.19. Revenue of $3.62B (+25.7% Y/Y) misses by $20M. Shares +4.7% in AH.

Fossil (FOSL +7.7%): Q4 EPS of $0.67 beats by $0.27. Revenue of $920.8M (-4.0% Y/Y) beats by $31.24M. Shares +55% in AH.

FANG (-0.8%),Q4 EPS of $1.56 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $399.2M (+115.8% Y/Y) beats by $34.49M. Shares +5.7% in AH.

MET (+1.3%) Q4 EPS of $0.64 misses by $0.22. Revenue of $15.75B (+24.7% Y/Y) beats by $240M.

Western Union (WU -0.1%): Q4 EPS of $0.41 misses by $0.04. Revenue of $1.44B (+5.1% Y/Y) beats by $40M. Shares +3% in AH.

My Trades Today


  • Bought TELL @ $9.98 (I have been day-trading TELL recently)
  • Added TIS @ $12.1

Earnings tomorrow


  • pre-market:   CS, DPS, FNMA, GRPN, HE, HLT, ICPT, LAD, SHPG, SODA
  • post-market:  A, ABX, AMAT, CF, CSCO, CTL, CYS, EQIX, GG, MAR, MRO, NLY, SPWR, TRIP, WMB

Comments

  1. UnknownFebruary 13, 2018 at 2:47 PM

    SQ 今天涨的原因？还有put TWTR 怎么样？话说FANG 是E&P尤其是Permian growth companies 里的好股估值也很贵，但是整个energy sector最终需要crude能有一个稳定向上的趋势，否则即使是好股也不能稳定上涨。原油短期有向下的压力，觉得FANG 还是要锁利为上策。女大确实在AD上有明显优势，APTV之类的目前没办法比。

    ReplyDelete
  2. UnknownFebruary 13, 2018 at 7:10 PM

    SQ和TWTR算是这半年华尔街新宠，我之前玩了一阵子SQ短线，然后就没再上车了。对于这类股，只敢远观，因为不知道什么时候就失宠了。原油上周库存又涨了，$60已经从支撑变成阻力，近期不看好。我手上还拿着COP，这个拿了几年了不打算动。

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownFebruary 13, 2018 at 8:27 PM

      那个SQ自从和比特币连在一起以后就变的volatile，一会得宠一会失宠。TWTR担心short term momentum，毕竟是季报第一次这么有起色，大家觉得是基本面的拐点到了。

      Delete
    2. UnknownFebruary 13, 2018 at 8:31 PM

      Big oil很多时候是beta低些股价相对稳定一点，又有分红。E&P看的主要是production growth，asset和inventory length，M&A，和油价波动，比较难做。

      Delete
  3. UnknownFebruary 13, 2018 at 9:02 PM

    胡乱来一个预测，只要大盘不乱，ASGN 近期ER，会有一波涨幅。

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownFebruary 14, 2018 at 8:10 AM

      On Assignment 好像已经preannounce 过了（positive），好像也在那时候大涨过了。 不过确实是STAFFING COMPANIES 里成长性的好股，和IT挂钩，估值确实也比较贵。

      Delete

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