Beat the Market

It is the end of April, and the market turns from gain to broad loss. Indices finish in slight green for month April. 30-year +0.24%. 10-yr +0.07%. 5-yr +0.04%. TLT +0.17%. Commodities: Crude +0.46% to $68.41. Gold -0.54% to $1,316.20. UUP +0.4%. Winners MCD +5.8%, after reporting Q1 EPS of $1.79 beats by $0.12. Revenue of $5.14B (-9.5% Y/Y) beats by $170M. global comparable-store sales increased 5.5% in Q1 to easily beat the consensus estimate of +3.8%. DIS +1.1% : 'Avengers: Infinity War' makes history, the film brought in $250M in the U.S. alone, besting the previous record-holder, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, which made just under $248M domestic upon its release. Disney and Twitter announce an agreement to create live content and advertising opportunities from across the entire Disney portfolio on the Twitter ( TWTR +4.5% ) platform. MAT +4.5% continues to rise on no significant news. AAPL +1.8% higher before ER. WMT +1.3% is selling its UK supermarke...

Market finally has a rally, fueled by great earnings. Along with stock market, bonds/crude/dollar are all up: TLT +0.7%, USO +0.36%, UUP +0.45% ; except Gold, GLD -0.35%. Winners FB +9.1% , beat expectations easily. I am expecting stock price to rise higher (at least $180, possible go towards $200 if the overall market is strong), as analysts will update their new 2018 EPS estimates. $9B buyback will also help. CMG +24.4% , short-squeeze after encouraging earnings. AMD +13.7% after ER beats. Stifel raises its PT by a dollar to $14. ABBV +6.1% as Q1 revenues +21%; non-GAAP EPS +46%. ALXN +14.5%, and ALGN +5.8% , lifted biotech sector ( IBB +2% ). ORLY +13.1% after ER beats, AAP +5% . Tractor Supply TSCO +7.2% (finished @ $66.66) as investors see slightly higher margins, despite ER misses. Losers MGM -8.7% falls after U.S. business disappoints (ERs were in-line). T -6% as revenue declines (ER misses). TWX -2.7% amid broad income decline. DIS -1.3%. CMCSA ...

More positive earnings finally stop the blooding today, as indices pare the early losses. However, treasury yields continue to rise: 30-year -0.44%. 10-yr -0.11%. 5-yr -0.01%. Crude +0.41% to $67.98. Gold -0.68% to $1,324.00. Winners BA +4.2% crushes estimates, lifts EPS outlook. CMCSA +2.7% swings from loss to gain amid earnings beat, as continuing gains in broadband customers offset cable TV declines, and cost cuts helped EPS growth that hit 24.5%. ANTM +6.2% after reporting Q1 EPS of $5.41 beats by $0.50. Revenue of $22.34B (+0.1% Y/Y) misses by $180M. HRB +5.4% after ER beats. TXN +4.7% after ER beats. However, it failed to lift Semiconductor sector, SOXX -0.1%, AMD -3.8%, NVDA -2.1%, WDC -0.6%. Losers LC -15%: the FTC has filed a complaint against LendingClub, charging the company with misleading consumers. TWTR -2.4% falls into red after jumping 14% in pre-market. Q1 EPS of $0.16 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $665M (+21.3% Y/Y) beats by $57.44M. The n...

Another scary selloff today following some big earnings : Google, CAT, LMT, MMM. .. all posted big loss today despite ER beats. Beaten down Finance and Semiconductor Sectors are relatively better today, XLF -0.7%, SOXX -0.8% . Treasury: 30-year -0.31%. 10-yr -0.03% . 5-yr +0.02% . TLT -0.45%. 10-year Treasury reaches 3% ... so what now? Crude -1.24% to $67.79. Gold +0.73% to $1,333.70. UUP -0.12%. Winners FITB +4.1% . So far, almost all the banks have ER beats. However, the big banks are traded down and small banks are treated more fairly. WHR +3.8% reaffirms profit guidance, despite ER misses. VZ +2.4% as unlimited plans hold customers in Q1 beat. PHM +2.9% after ER beats. HOG +2.4% after positive international sales growth (ER beats although rev only grows 2.3% Y/Y). BIIB +1.1% , jumped from a big loss to gain. Q1 +11%; non-GAAP EPS +16%. LLY -0.1% , quiet after ER beats. Q1 revenues +9%; non-GAAP EPS +37%; raises 2018 guidance. BIIB and LLY set the ton...

Market is trying find direction after both trade war and North Korea situation ease. Breaking News: At least nine people were killed and 16 injured in Toronto when a van drove into pedestrians on a busy street. A law enforcement official briefed on the situation in Toronto tells CNN the incident is believed to be deliberate. 30-year +0.02%. 10-yr -0.12%. 5-yr -0.08%. TLT flat. Crude +0.83% to $68.97. Gold -0.88% to $1,326.50. UUP +0.6%. Winners HAS swings from loss to +4% after ER misses. Hasbro blames ToysRus for the miss, and investors are buying it. MAT +6.3%. ALK +5.7% after ER beats and capacity view cut. Retailers regain some strength: KORS +4.4%, UA +4.4%, UAA +3.9%. Losers MU -3.2% after UBS analyst sees weak 2019 in NAND, DRAM. WDC -2.9%, STX -2.4%, NVDA -2.1%, AMAT -1.8%... iRobot ( IRBT -6.2% ) as Amazon is reported to be working on a domestic robot (a walking Alexa?). CBI -8.3% ahead of ER. Subsea 7 (OTCPK:SUBCY) offered $7/share for McDermott (MD...

Today's selloff was broad, with 10 of 11 S&P 500 sectors finishing in the red, as tech (-1.5%) and consumer staples (-1.7%) were the worst performers, while financials (+0.1%) finished at the top of the sector standings with a slight gain. Treasury yields continue to rise : 30-year -0.6%. 10-yr -0.3%. 5-yr -0.18%. TLT -0.72%. Crude -0.01% to $68.28 . Gold -0.79% to $1,338.10 . UUP +0.6%. Winners Wells Fargo WFC +2% , after removing the overhang of a couple of government probes by agreeing to pay a $1B fine. RF +4.1% , Q1 EPS of $0.35 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $1.41B (+6.0% Y/Y) misses by $30M. XLF flat. CLF +7.4% on raised outlook for iron ore pellet volume, prices。 HON +1.6% , Q1 EPS of $1.95 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $10.39B (+9.5% Y/Y) beats by $360M. GE +3.9% , Q1 EPS $0.16 beat by $0.04, Revenue of $28.66B (+6.6%) beat by $1.14B. Very encouraging. BHGE +0.8% , Q1 EPS of $0.09 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $5.4B (+76.5% Y/Y) misses by $20M. Loser...

Treasury yields headwind is back, which triggered the correction in Feb.  30-year -0.69%. 10-yr -0.26%. 5-yr -0.11%. TLT -0.8%. Crude -0.35% to $68.23. Gold -0.44% to $1,347.60. UUP +0.3% Winners Blackstone ( BX +1% ) beats, boosts buyback, sets special payout. XLF +1.6%, MS +2.7% AXP +7.7% after ER beats. GWW +5.3% after ER beats: Q1 EPS of $4.18 beats by $0.76. Revenue of $2.76B (+8.7% Y/Y) beats by $50M. Amazon ( AMZN +1.9% ): Amazon.com tops 100M Prime members. FB +1% is hanging between $165 and $170, ahead of earnings on 4/25. GOOG +1.5% will report earnings on 4/23. Losers NUE -0.6% beats, helped by higher steel price. X -0.4%. Bad news for Automakers: GM -3%, F -3.3%. Semiconductor sector is sold off today SOXX -4.4%, SOXL -13%. Taiwan Semiconductor ( TSM -5.7% ) cut its guidance with a strong pointer to iPhone ( AAPL -2.8% ) weakness. LRCX -6.6%, AMAT -6.5%, KLAC -5.5%, MU -4.8%, NVDA -3.1%, WDC -2.4%, INTC -2.6%.. . PM -15.6% , reported mixed...

Market is relatively quiet today. Stocks finished mostly higher in a range-bound session. IBM (-7.5%) and LRCX (-4%) were sold off despite their ER beats. Energy sector (XLE +1.6%) surged as May WTI crude futures rallied (USO +3.4%) to $68.47/bbl. The industrials sector (XLI +1%) also showed strength after United Continental (UAL +4.8%) and CSX (+7.8%) reported strong Q1 results. So far 10% of S&P companies have reported Q1 results, 80% have beaten expectations, which is encouraging. Financial Sector continues recent weakness despite great earnings from Morgan Stanley (MS flat): Q1 EPS of $1.45 beats by $0.20. Revenue of $11.08B (+13.8% Y/Y) beats by $720M. XLF -0.4% . I think it is great opportunity to buy big banks. Tencent (TCEHY -0.6%) and JD.com (JD -0.2%) have joined investors in smart TV maker New Leshi Zhixin. Winners ISRG +8.2% after ER beats. UAL +4.8% after ER beats, AAL +5.1%, LUV +2.9%, DAL +1.2%... Losers ROKU -11.8% after the news of a partnersh...

It is TAX day. IRS payment system is down. Stocks, commodities and bonds all go north today. Tech leads the rally, QQQ +2.1%. 30-year +0.19%. 10-yr +0.06%. 5-yr +0.01%. TLT +0.27% Crude +0.38% to $66.47. Gold -0.04% to $1,350.20. NUGT +1.3%. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans says he's optimistic inflation will rise to the central bank's 2% target. Starbucks ( SBUX +0.7% ) will close more than 8000 stores on 5/29 for employee racial-bias training, regarding the recent event in Philly. Winners U.S. Supreme Court justices appear undecided on whether states should force out-of-state e-commerce companies to collect sales taxes. AMZN +4.3% . FAANG all shoot higher today: NFLX +9.2%, GOOG +3.5%, FB +2.3%, AAPL +1.4%.  The U.S. Supreme Court says the privacy fight it was considering between the Justice Department and Microsoft ( MSFT +2% ) is now moot and dismisses the case. Semiconductor sector is strong, SOXX +1.9% . LRCX +4.3%,  NVDA +2.6%, AMD +4%, INTC ...

Market has broad gain today, led by building materials ( XLB +1.4% ) and the industrials ( XLI +1% ). Trump tweets accuses China and Russia of currency devaluation, who just cannot zip himself. Treasury flat, Crude -1.47% to $66.40 . Gold +0.08% to $1,349.00 . UUP -0.34%. Short of any triggering event, the president is unlikely to approve of any more sanctions against Russia , reports the Washington Post. That would seemingly contradict U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley's Sunday comments that a new round of sanctions were imminent. Former FBI director Comey had his first interview with ABC after his firing. Republicans are fighting against him recklessly. His new book comes to market tomorrow. Facebook updates with post on logged-out data collection. Winners Amazon.com ( AMZN +0.7% ) has killed a plan to sell and distribute pharmaceuticals through its Amazon Business marketplace, according to CNBC. Walgreens Boots Alliance ( WBA +3.7% ); CVS ( CVS +4.2% ); AmeriSourceBe...

Big banks kick off the new earning season. JPM, C and WFC all beat expectations. However, a selloff in Financial Sector drags down the market, XLF -1.5% . Well, it is Black Friday anyway. Trade war? No trade war? Syria war? No Syria war? Quit TPP? Rejoin TPP? NAFTA? No NAFTA? What is wrong with America! This is toxic. Treasurys: 30-year +0.28%. 10-yr +0.07%. 5-yr +0.03%. TLT +0.23%. Crude +0.27% to $67.25. Gold +0.42% to $1,347.60. UUP flat. The total U.S. rig count rose by 5 to 1,008, according to the latest weekly survey from Baker Hughes. Oil +7, Gas -2. U.S. Job openings lower than anticipated. 6.052M job openings in February vs. 6.143M consensus, 6.312M prior. Rolls-Royce warns of extra inspections of Trent 100 engines on Boeing ( BA -2.4% ) 787 Dreamliners that would lead to further disruptions for airline customers and consume more cash. Boeing says ~25% of in-service 787 Dreamliners use the Trent 100 engine and is deploying support teams to mitigate service di...

Market has a rally after Trump twittered "Never said when an attack on Syria would take place. Could be very soon or not so soon at all!" Stupid idiot as always. Banks lead the rally as earnings season kicks off tomorrow ( C +3.2%, JPM +2.5%, WFC +1.5% ). XLF +1.8%.  Semiconductor sector continues to fight back, SOXX +1.9%. However, volume remained light with just 746M shares changing hands at the NYSE vs. the 50-day moving average of 953M shares , and some late selling dragged the major averages off their session highs to finish near the middle of today's ranges. The light volume indicates weakness. U.S. Treasury prices fell across the curve, pushing yields higher: 30-year -0.62%. 10-yr -0.35%. 5-yr -0.25% . Utility XLU -1.3% and REITs IYR -0.9% . Crude +0.43% to $67.11 . Gold -1.64% to $1,337.70. OPEC says its crude oil production fell last month to the lowest level in a year as it complies with its supply cut agreement, but the world’s total oil supply c...

The market is lower after the president threatened Russia and Syria in tweets this morning. B ulls failed to take indices higher, especially after FOMC minutes. FOMC minutes from March 20-21 lean hawkish , making investors worry about faster interest rate hikes. Dollar recovers from early loss ( UUP -0.08% ), Gold gives up half of its early gains ( GLD +0.77% ). Gold miners continues to rally, NUGT +6.6% ( DUST -6.3% ). USO +1.5% , as Mideast is in the shadow of war. Worst in Dow 30: BA -2.2% (was best yesterday). BA has become a measuring tool for the market recently. Best in Dow: XOM +0.5% and CVX +0.3%, MCD +0.4% (the only three in green). Winners FB +0.8% keeps bouncing back. The House Energy and Commerce Committee has taken a recess after 3.5 hours of testimony from Mark Zuckerberg, after 5 hours from Senetes yesterday. Energy sector is benefited from higher crude price, XLE +1% . Airlines are affected inversely (Jet Fuel price worries) JETS -1.6% . Consumer pr...

Stocks remain its rally , as China's Pres. Xi helped soothe trade war fears with plans to further open up the country's economy, including significantly reducing import tariffs for automobiles, improving market access for foreign investors, and better enforcing intellectual property rights of foreign firms. Treasury: 30-year -0.14%. 10-yr -0.1%. 5-yr -0.1%. TLT -0.18%. Crude +3.67% to $65.75 . Gold +0.29% to $1,344.00. Winners Facebook jumps 4.5% as Zuckerberg faces Senate questions (still going now, some questions are very stupid). TWTR +5.4%, SNAP +2.3%, GOOG +1.6%. Sprint ( S +17.2% ) and T-Mobile ( TMUS +5.7% ) have restarted deal talks, again. VZ +2.9%, T +1.8%. Crude price jumps ( USO +3.7% ) as Syria is causing big trouble again. XLE +3.3% , Exxon Mobil XOM +2.9% as BofA Merrill Lynch adds to US 1 List. DVN +6.8%, RRC +6.1%, NFX +6.1%, HP +5.6%, PXD +5.3%, CXO +5.3%, COP +2.8%, CVX +2.5%, APC +3.3%... NVDA +5.8% after receiving upgrades. MU +5.3%, ST...

Major indices almost lost all the early gains (as White House tried to ease trade war tension) in the late hours. The Nasdaq was up more than 2% at the session high, but closed the day with just a 0.5% advance. Market is very vulnerable these days. The selloff might be triggered by FBI action ---- raided the offices of Trump's longtime personal lawyer, Michael Cohen. Robert Mueller is getting closer to Trump. I expect Trump to stir both domestic and foreign policies in the coming days to migrate public attentions from his endless scandals. Treasurys: 30-year +0.09%. 10-yr -0.04%. 5-yr -0.03%. TLT +0.16%. Crude +1.97% to $63.28. Gold +0.36% to $1,340.90 . UUP -0.25%. The House Energy and Commerce Committee has released Facebook ( FB +0.5% ) chief Mark Zuckerberg's testimony. Not much new info. Zuckerberg apologized and pledged to do more to protect users' privacy. Syria used chemical weapon again! Trump said he will make a decision in the next 24 to 48 hours abo...

As I said yesterday, we have a bloody Friday. Trade worries are rising again as Dumb Trump requested that U.S. trade officials consider imposing tariffs on an additional $100B worth of imports from China, which reacted by declaring that is ready to respond to any new tariffs and that negotiations could not be conducted under current conditions. In today's title, " dumb and dumber " ---- It was a dumb idea to start "trade war", now it's getting dumber. "TGIF" ---- thanks god it's Friday. Hope the situation will get better over the weekend. Current market is "untradable". The March non-farm payrolls report showed the U.S. adding 103K jobs , missing headline expectations by a wide margin. The early bounce attempt has failed, with all three indices fell more than 2%. At 2600, the S&P 500 is right around February low again. The worst today are the industrials ( XLI -2.8% ), Tech ( QQQ -2.5% ) and the financials ( XLF -2.4% )...

Market has a 3-day rally, led by materials (+1.9%), energy (+1.8%), consumer discretionary (+1.4%) and industrials (+1%) today. The tech sector (+0.4%) is lagging, although Facebook jumped +2.7%, Netflix and Amazon each rose more than +1.5%. Treasury: 30-year -0.47%. 10-yr -0.12%. 5-yr -0.08%. TLT -0.74%. Crude +0.39% to $63.62. Gold -0.81% to $1,329.40 . UUP +0.38%. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic , a voting member on FOMC, said in an interview that he is comfortable with inflation rising above the Fed's 2% target, which suggests he may favor a less aggressive approach to raising interest rates. Winners TSLA +6.5% . It has recovered from $245 to $305 in a week despite the company missing Q1 production target, facing Chinese Tariffs, possible risks of burning cash and raising equity. FB +2.7% after Zuckerberg answered reporters' questions. Deutsche Bank says worst is over. AMD +2.6% upgraded by Stifel. Energy sector is strong today: MRO +5.7%, RRC...

Market has another wild swing, from deep red ( -2% ) to a rally ( >+1% ). After two-day gaining, indices have almost recovered the loss from Monday. Some are calling this the Kudlow rally . The president's new chief economic adviser, Kudlow mid-morning stepped out to say there's no trade war. "What you've got is the early stage of a process ... There's already back-channel talks going on ... At the end of this whole process, the end of the rainbow, there's a pot of gold." Yesterday after market close, US announced 301 investigation results and tariffs list. China responded in few hours with new list including auto, airplane and soy bean. SOYB was sold off at the market open, which also recovered most of the early loss, ending with -1.8%. CORN -1.9% . Gold miners turned from gain to loss, NUGT -1%.  Treasury: 30-year -0.26%. 10-yr -0.12%. 5-yr -0.09%. TLT -0.2%. Crude +0.13% to $63.59. Gold 0% to $1,337.30. UUP flat. Winners LEN +10%, repo...

Market recovers roughly half loss from yesterday. Best in Dow 30: NKE +4% ; worst: IBM -0.15%. USO +0.54%, GLD -0.75% , UUP +0.16%. News Trump attacked Amazon (+1.5%) again , not much new information though. Tweet: “I am right about Amazon costing the United States Post Office massive amounts of money for being their Delivery Boy. Amazon should pay these costs (plus) and not have them bourne by the American Taxpayer. Many billions of dollars. P.O. leaders don’t have a clue (or do they?)!” The Japanese central bank has been discussing how to exit smoothly from its massive QE program, but says it's too early to reveal details at this point. ESPN Plus to debut on 4/12 at $4.99/month. Facebook ( FB +0.5% ) is  pulled from Bank of America Merrill Lynch's US 1 list, replaced by NVDA +1.9%. BofAML is staying a Buy on FB. Winners US auto market is strong in March. General Motors ( GM +3.3% ) unit sales +16%, Ford ( F +2.7% ) +3.4%, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles ( FCAU...

Market has another selloff today. It was initially led by Tech, which spills over to the whole market. UNH +1.4%, MCD +0.9% are the only two green in Dow 30. INTC -6.1% is the worst. Treasury: 30-year +0.17%. 10-yr +0.13%. 5-yr +0.11%. TLT flat. Crude -2.79% to $63.13 . Gold +1.45% to $1,346.50. UUP -0.1%. U.S. WTI crude oil futures sank in their steepest one-day drop since early February due to 1) a rise in Russian production, 2) expectations that Saudi Arabia will cut prices of the crude it sends to Asia, 3) the deepening trade spat between China and the U.S. Other news China starts to charge tariffs on 128 US products , mainly on fruits and pork, in response to Steel/Alum tariffs from US. Japanese business sentiment worsened for the first time in two years as rising raw materials and labor costs weigh on an otherwise steady economic recovery. A strong yen and simmering fears of a trade war, triggered by Donald Trump's move to impose tariffs on Chinese goods,...