Market 2018-03-20 (FB, AMZN, AMD, and more)

Market bounces back a bit ahead of rate hike tomorrow, led by Dow Jones, although social media stocks struggle for the 2nd day.

Best in Dow 30: BA +1.8%. Worst: GE -3.1%.

Crude +2.24% to $63.52. Gold -0.58% to $1,310.20. TLT -0.37%. UUP +0.57%.

Focus on news

Facebook (FB -2.6%) is on headlines everywhere amid the Cambridge Analytica fallout. Facebook's deputy chief privacy officer says "We appreciate the opportunity to answer questions the FTC may have." FTC (Federal Trade Commission) can fine the company $40k/day per violation if they conclude that Facebook has violated 2011 consent decree. The company has denied any violation.

The company's officials are briefing House Energy & Commerce Committee and the Senate Commerce Committee today and tomorrow.

Bottomline: FB have stopped sharing user info with 3rd party developer in 2015. All users have signed the agreement although nobody reads them. Therefore, I see little legal risks. Sure, all the social media companies will face more regulations. However, most of the law makers have difficult time to understand the issues (data practices), the approval of new regulations will be a very slow process. At the meantime, social media companies will continue to sell ads and earn cash. I don't see fundamental changes at this point. It creates great opportunities to buy.

 TWTR -10.4%, SNAP -2.6%, GOOG -0.2%...

Amazon now has market-cap larger than Google, 2nd in the World following Apple.

Salesforce (CRM +0.1%) will acquire MuleSoft (MULE +27.2%) for an enterprise value of about $6.5B, $44.89/share. CRM -2.5% in AH. MULE +4.3% in AH.

Winners

Hottest tech companies shine again: AMZN +2.7%, NFLX +1.3%, NVDA +3.6%, SQ +5.8%, MU +1.7%...

Adobe (ADBE +3.4%) has another all-time high today.

Energy Sector is boosted by rising oil price, XLE +0.8%: MPC +3.3%, MRO +2.8%, HES +3%, EOG +2.9%, APC +2.6%, APA +2%, COP +2.1%...

 YY +7.4% jumps higher, MOMO +4.8%, BABA +2.3%, WUBA +5.6%...

Losers

ORCL -9.4% after ER due to weak guidance. Stifel downgrades ORCL from Buy to Hold with $53 PT.

Opioid makers continue to slide: TEVA -1.3%, MYL -1%, ABC -3.8%, MCK -3.9%, AGN -1.6%, PRGO -1.8%...

AMD -2.8% will release a series of firmware patches in the coming weeks to address the recently disclosed security issues. The processor issues first came to light through a white paper from security firm CTS-Labs on 3/13. Initially AMD denied these security issues, and challenged the reliablity of CTS-Labs. It looks bad now. It could be Intel's revenge --- just my guess.

My Trades Today

Sold 3/4 YY @ $125 to lock-in profit. I hope I could buy back shares at lower price.
Double down FB, lower average cost to $167.4
Bought DKL
Bought BGS

Comments

  1. UnknownMarch 20, 2018 at 2:30 PM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownMarch 20, 2018 at 5:43 PM

      不知道为啥小扎没跑出来托盘。如果这周能反弹到172，我就先出掉一些，现在仓位有些重。

      Delete
    2. UnknownMarch 20, 2018 at 8:03 PM

      小扎估计自己还在焦头烂额吧。这种secular pressure 经常提升股票估值的risk premium，即使对短期的earnings未必有什么影响。还要考虑litigation risk。女大盘真是硬，Uber的消息没影响。SQ更别提了。不知道FDX为什么盘后又跌了，conf call听起来还行的print也不错。

      Delete
    3. UnknownMarch 20, 2018 at 8:29 PM

      美国人忘性大，再大的事儿，过去一两个月就当没发生过了。Uber那个警察报告说车子没责任，不过其中有没有猫腻就不知道了，FDX这样的股，放心拿到退休没问题，跌的多了就加仓

      Delete
    4. UnknownMarch 20, 2018 at 8:42 PM

      Toyota暂停美国的无人驾驶测试了。APTV最近的走势不怎么样。女大这么硬还是挺厉害的。不知道明天Fed愿不愿托盘，Trump 周四会不会又砸盘也未可知，感觉他基本上已经精神失常了。

      Delete
    5. UnknownMarch 20, 2018 at 9:06 PM

      APTV没研究，我关注一下。这周实在不太平，周五又要面临政府关门了，这届国会太烂了，白宫更烂，好好的经济快被折腾到萧条了

      Delete

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