Market 2018-03-02 (GPS, NFLX, GE, and more)
Wall St. rattled by fears of trade war, has rocky open before gaining ground. Dow Jones lost 400 points at earlier hours before bouncing back to -71.6 (-0.3%). Trump tweeted this morning "Trade wars are good, we can win easily". Economists have two-word comment "Great Recession"! It is hard to tell what is behind the Nasdaq (+1.1%) rally.
Among Dow Jones 30: best is INTC +2.4%; worst are MCD -4.8%, CAT -2.6%, BA -1.4%.
Treasury yields jump (TLT -0.8%) and dollar drops (UUP-0.4%). Crude +0.75% to $61.45. Gold +1.39% to $1,323.30.
M +4%, KSS +6.2%, JWN +5.3%, TGT +1.5%... as I said yesterday, M and KSS are both doing very well, especially in current economy --- higher wage and lower tax. According to the earning power, M is on sale if stock price falls below $30. If Macy's manages to report 1-2 positive ERs, it could go north of $40.
NFLX +3.7% as stock price crosses $300, market cap $130.6B --- about same size as Disney (DIS +0.4%). I guess I will stick with DIS, which has P/E below 15 (vs 230 of NFLX).
SPLK +9.3% after ER beats and upside guidance.
UHS +6.7% after ER beats: Q4 EPS of $2.00 beats by $0.16. Revenue of $2.64B (+6.5% Y/Y) beats by $10M.
GE (+0.7%) finally find some supporters in Wall Street. William Blair analyst, Nicholas Heymann, expects the stock to rise ~50% this year after crashing 52% in the past 12 months. Rising interest rate is good thing for GE as every 0.25% increase in the yield of 10-year Treasury notes reduces the pension deficit by $2.2B. By the end of 2017, GE’s pension obligations were underfunded by ~$31B - $19B in mandatory obligations and $12B that are voluntary. Reported last Friday, the amount had been trimmed down $2.4B due to rising interest. If 10-yr treasury yield rises to 3.5%, the deficit can be cut another $5B (about 20%).
JCP -5.4% after reporting mixed ER.
VMW -5.9% despite ER beats and upside guidance. Analysts are concerned about potential Dell merger.
FL -12.7% despite ER beats. Q3 EPS drops from $1.13 a year ago to $0.87; revenue falls 1.1% as well.
MCD -4.8% after RBC's David Palmer cutting his same-store sales growth forecast for Q1 to 1% from 3.5%, and his PT to $170 from $190.
Among Dow Jones 30: best is INTC +2.4%; worst are MCD -4.8%, CAT -2.6%, BA -1.4%.
Treasury yields jump (TLT -0.8%) and dollar drops (UUP-0.4%). Crude +0.75% to $61.45. Gold +1.39% to $1,323.30.
Winners
The Gap (GPS +7.8%) after outstanding ER. I believe Old Navy (same store sale +9%) will keep benefited from wage hike this year. UA +5.8%, UAA +5.5%...M +4%, KSS +6.2%, JWN +5.3%, TGT +1.5%... as I said yesterday, M and KSS are both doing very well, especially in current economy --- higher wage and lower tax. According to the earning power, M is on sale if stock price falls below $30. If Macy's manages to report 1-2 positive ERs, it could go north of $40.
NFLX +3.7% as stock price crosses $300, market cap $130.6B --- about same size as Disney (DIS +0.4%). I guess I will stick with DIS, which has P/E below 15 (vs 230 of NFLX).
SPLK +9.3% after ER beats and upside guidance.
UHS +6.7% after ER beats: Q4 EPS of $2.00 beats by $0.16. Revenue of $2.64B (+6.5% Y/Y) beats by $10M.
GE (+0.7%) finally find some supporters in Wall Street. William Blair analyst, Nicholas Heymann, expects the stock to rise ~50% this year after crashing 52% in the past 12 months. Rising interest rate is good thing for GE as every 0.25% increase in the yield of 10-year Treasury notes reduces the pension deficit by $2.2B. By the end of 2017, GE’s pension obligations were underfunded by ~$31B - $19B in mandatory obligations and $12B that are voluntary. Reported last Friday, the amount had been trimmed down $2.4B due to rising interest. If 10-yr treasury yield rises to 3.5%, the deficit can be cut another $5B (about 20%).
Losers
JD -5.2% after ER misses. BABA -1.2%.JCP -5.4% after reporting mixed ER.
VMW -5.9% despite ER beats and upside guidance. Analysts are concerned about potential Dell merger.
FL -12.7% despite ER beats. Q3 EPS drops from $1.13 a year ago to $0.87; revenue falls 1.1% as well.
MCD -4.8% after RBC's David Palmer cutting his same-store sales growth forecast for Q1 to 1% from 3.5%, and his PT to $170 from $190.
JD 没有miss, 基本是inline。感觉问题是spending 加速太快，margin 太低。肉饼想走AMZN的老路子。M的估值低，Apparels 整个sector估值也不高，感觉就是off-pricers像BURL之类的还能撑撑，其他的面临得竞争实在都太大了，这是secular pressure，感觉这种股做波段比较好。
ReplyDelete楼主觉得JD适合长期持有吗？感觉在四处扩张，不知道能不能上一个台阶？
Delete就像Amy说的，JD目前没有很强的盈利能力，优势是物流。这样的股很难估值，必须保持高增长才能维持股价。如果想要长期持有的话，我觉得BABA会是更好的选择
Delete多谢多谢
Delete