Market 2018-03-01 (Trade Wars, BBY, KSS, and more)

The Dow Jones dropped as much as 586 points after rising more than 150 points earlier in the day --- many thanks to our President.

The U.S. will set tariffs of 25% for steel and 10% for aluminum, the president Trump said, although the formal decision will be announced next week. The trade wars are very real now. Agriculture will be the first to feel the pains, not only farmers, but also tractor makers/seed companies/chemicals. Automakers and construction companies will also face higher material cost, which Ford has been suffering in its last ER. Boeing (BA -3.5%) may also face order cancellation as foreign buyers move to Airbus... The hitting list can keep going on.

Also, US consumer inflation picks up in January, personal consumption expenditures (PCE) +0.4%. Consumer spending -0.1% after inflation adjustment.

Crude -0.41% to $61.39. Gold +0.02% to $1,318.20. 10-yr treasury yield drops to 2.81%. UUP -0.3%.

Winners

Steel and aluminum makers: X +5.7%, AKS +9.5%, CLF +10.2%, CENX +7.5%.....

Best Buy (BBY +3.9%) after ER beats. Comparable sales in the U.S. +9% in Q4, as appliances sales +21%. FY19 revenue of $41.00B to $42.00B vs $40.89B consensus and full-year EPS of $4.80-$5.00 vs $4.72 consensus.

NWL +3.2% as Carl Icahn has taken a stake (He just declared winning $1B on HLF).

CRM (+2.7%) after ER beats. BMO Capital raises its PT to $133; Mizuho Securities raises to $140; Stifel taises to $142.

Hostess Brands (TWNK +15.4%) after strong ER. The company also hinted possible acquisitions.

DDD +13.1% after providing upside preliminary results.

LC +15.9% bounces back on no particular news.

Losers

BOX -23.3% amid downside guidance.

MNST -14.4% after ER misses.

 LB -13.9% despite ER beats.

 Kohl's (KSS -5.2%) plunged despite ER beats: Q4 EPS of $1.99 beats by $0.24. Revenue of $6.78B (+9.2% Y/Y) beats by $40M. KSS also hikes dividend and plans to buyback shares $300-400M in 2018. 2018 guidance EPS: $4.95 to $5.45. Current price $62.66. I like KSS as a solid retailer company. However, I prefer M for its lower P/E.

Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM -6.4%): Q4 EPS of $0.42 misses by $0.01. Revenue of $574.8M (+3.8% Y/Y) beats by $49.79M. ALB -4.5%, LIT -2%.

Earnings in AH

  1. Nordstrom (JWN -1.6%): Q4 EPS of $1.20 misses by $0.04. Revenue of $4.7B (+8.8% Y/Y) beats by $80M. FY18 guidance: Sales of $15.2B-$15.4B, comparable sales +0.5% to +1.5%, EBIT of $885M to $940M, EPS of $3.30 to $3.55. Shares -4.7% in AH.
  2. Gap (GPS +0.4%): Q4 EPS of $0.61 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $4.78B (+7.9% Y/Y) beats by $110M. Comparable sales +5%. Shares +8.8% in AH.
  3. VMware (VMW -6.1%): Q4 EPS of $1.68 beats by $0.06. Revenue of $2.31B (+13.8% Y/Y) beats by $50M. Shares -1.8% in AH.
  4. Splunk (SPLK +0.5%): Q4 EPS of $0.37 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $419.7M (+37.0% Y/Y) beats by $28.81M. Upside FY19 guidance at approximately $1.625B (was: $1.55B; consensus: $1.56B) with non-GAAP operating margin at about 11.5% (was: 10.5%). Shares +6% in AH.
  5. Southwestern Energy (SWN +3.9%): Q4 EPS of $0.12 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $809M (+18.3% Y/Y) beats by $4.08M. Shares +4% in AH.

My Trades Today

  • Sold half position in LC.
  • Added more shares of C.

Earnings Tomorrow

  • pre-market: FL, JCP, JD

Comments

  1. UnknownMarch 1, 2018 at 3:29 PM

    这个盘真的很难做了，基本上短期中期的大方向都看不出啊。个股的小船基本说翻就翻，比翻书还快。基本上是赚到些钱就要马上跑，不跑和跑慢了基本很容易就扭赢为亏，甚至亏飞。没办法。

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownMarch 1, 2018 at 3:34 PM

      没错，震的根本拿不住，很容易就被套牢。这种局面恐怕不是几天能结束的。真是应该禁止机器人交易

      Delete
    2. UnknownMarch 1, 2018 at 8:26 PM

      前几天看了一篇文章，据说机器人要把花街的失业率推上新高，AI以后让所有trader和strategist之类的人失业。感觉有一天机器人要统治地球了。

      Delete

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