Market 2017-10-27 (USO, EXPE, CELG, and more)

As I said yesterday on mitbbs, the market would be boosted by big tech earnings on Friday. Nasdaq jumps 2.2%.


Winners:

AMZN (+13.2%), GOOG (+4.8%), INTC (+7.4%), MSFT (+6.4%) all due to great earnings
Feeling the heat in tech, FB +4.3%, NFLX +2.2%, NVDA +3.2%
AAPL (+3.6%) iphone X pre-order shows big demand. If you pre-order now, you will feel lucky to receive by Xmas. I am not sure if it is partially caused by wrong estimate, or OLED production bottle-neck. The impact on their next earning is also unclear.

First Solar (+20.4%) due to nice earnings. However, please be cautious that solar market is expected to cool down in 2018.

USO (+2.6%). As I keep saying in the past week, crude price will recover gradually. Brent crude tops $60 and WTI reaches $54. I expect WTI to ~$56.

Losers:

EXPE (-16%). Missed ER, disappointing guidance. Travel companies have enjoyed fast growth and fat margin in the past 5 years. Any slowing down will trigger such selloff. As I mentioned before, EXPE and Priceline are dominating. I may start buying after it settles down. At this moment, they are at $124 support. I wish the price can reach the next support @ $110.

MAT (-8.9%). It was down 27% yesterday AH. Stock price partially recovers through the day. Dividend is suspended and layoff is on the way. No short-term catalysts now. Stock price will stay low ($12~14) for a while if not getting worse.

 JCP (-14.7%) gave a warning, all whole mall stocks get beat. M -7.7%, KSS -4.6%, SHLD -5.1%, JWN -3%.

 GE (-2.5%) don't know when the bleeding will stop. It has dropped 11.4% this week.

Biotech (IBB) swings from red to green. GILD recovers most of the early loss, finish (-1%). Its HCV revenue decline was expected (even modeled 3-4 years ago). Another opportunity to buy CELG (-1.8%), which I have analyzed yesterday (https://tinyurl.com/ycbe7x3x). There is more juice today --- A Phase 3 clinical trial, SUNBEAM, demonstrated Celgene's oral Ozanimod's superiority to Biogen's  injectable Avonex in patients with relapsing multiple sclerosis (RMS). MRK (-6% and another -3.2% AH) had a bad day after ER miss.

COST recovers after the opening drop. In amazon ER, Whole Foods had zero growth under amazon's name from 8/28 to 9/30. Also amazon books stores and popup stores had almost zero revenue, since they reported $1.28B revenue for Whole Foods and $1.3B total sales.


My Trades Today

Sold TELL (+8.9%), a surprise pop as UNG -2.4%. I locked my profit and expect to buy back at lower price.

Bought M @ $19.8.

 Bought back CELG @ $95.8, which I daytraded yesterday.

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